I came across an interesting Black Friday Cyber Monday study that I wanted to share with you as you are finalizing your Q4 plans, strategizing your promotions, and your marketing strategy.
Before we get into the nitty gritty of what this particular study found, let’s talk about who the creator of it was, TapCart.
If you are not familiar, Tap Cart is an app that will take your Shopify store and turn it into an app for the Apple and Android App Store.
At my previous day job we did actually use Tap Cart to create an app. I think this was before the Shop app was shopping focused, it may have still been more a delivery tracking app. Admittedly, as the years go by tiny details like that do get a little blurry.
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Who’s Behind the Data, and Who’s Represented?
I share this with you because the data is skewed toward mobile shopping apps from the beginning. Not only who sponsored it, because they want you to pay them to create an app for you, but also who they surveyed. Mobile shoppers, 1205 of them.
Here’s what I can tell you about having an app… it’s almost a separate business model. It takes different resources, strategies, management, and customers.
Either you’re going to push your existing website shoppers to the app, or you’re going to acquire new customers who are very app-shopping focused. Unless you see a significant increase in repeat shopping habits or sales conversion, it’s not an easy way to generate net new revenue. That was true for us, even with $1-2m in annual revenue for our online store. Any less than that, it’s really going to be a struggle.
While I could create an entirely separate episode on eCommerce store apps, send me a DM on Instagram or reply to one of my emails if you’re interested in that, I just wanted to mention it because I don’t want you to interpret this episode as ooh, maybe I need an app. Because there’s a 99% chance I would tell you, don’t bother.
Sure, my app experience was a lot of years ago at this point. It’s possible consumer behavior has changed, but data from 1200 people isn’t enough for me to recommend you spend, minimum $500/mo, just to have a branded app.
Alright, with that out of the way, let’s get into the findings.
Demand is not the problem. Capturing it is.
As I say every year, no matter what is seemingly going on in the economy there are always people ready, willing and able to shop. Especially around the holidays.
According to the data, 2/3 of shoppers spent between $100 and $600 last Black Friday weekend. 42% of those surveyed say they’re expecting to increase spending this year, with 13% prepared to cut back.
They didn’t give any additional details on why those people would be spending more. Is it because they have more money to spend, or just because they expect prices to be higher?
The group that is planning to cut back, did cite higher prices and inflation as the reason why. It was cited 2x more than any other reason for cutting back. Interestingly, tariffs were only a driver for about 9% of customers. Is that because they don’t mind paying the tariffs or because they haven’t quite made the connection that the tariffs are the reason for higher prices?
Who Plans to Spend More
There are 3 groups that plan to spend more this year. 53% of Gen-Z, 49% of Millennials, and 63% of Luxury Shoppers.
If the majority of your customers are Gen-X or Boomers, you might be concerned. But honestly, without more data my takeaway is that maybe they just don’t shop on apps as much as the rest, or they fell into the luxury bucket. Either way, these stats don’t say that those shoppers won’t be valuable this year.
The Biggest Opportunity is With Luxury Shoppers
One of the most prominent customer segments they focused on in the report was luxury shoppers. They didn’t explain what qualified someone as a luxury shopper, but there were a few interesting details about how this group engages in Black Friday shopping.
They of course led with the fact that luxury shoppers expect to shop through a branded app. You already know how I feel about that.
But there were a bunch of other data points that are universal and have been true for as long as I have been working in eCommerce.
- 54% of them shop through social as compared to a low of 32%
- 42% plan to join live shopping events, with half having already bought from a livestream
- Luxury shoppers are the most responsive to personalized recommendations, gift guides, early access, and VIP offers.
- 60% call loyalty rewards “extremely important” and
- Social advertising lands hardest with an Instagram ad motivating 47% of luxury shoppers vs. 23% overall.
All of these are classic Q4 eCommerce strategies I recommend every business does, even if your best customers aren’t considered luxury shoppers. While the other customer segments didn’t score quite as high on these particular strategies, that’s why they were highlighted in the luxury shopper section of the report, they’re valued by all. Especially exclusive perks and early access to drops… Everyone from Gen-Z to the Boomers were into that.
Match Your Marketing Play to the Shopper
Understanding all this different customer behavior is great, but the real question is what does that mean for your business.
The report put it this way: “Match the play to the shopper; your most valuable shoppers aren’t defined by age. They’re defined by intent, behavior, and category.”
Here’s how they broke it down.
- High-intent and love to shop: (I’d probably fall into this category): Early access, drops, loyalty perks, and app exclusives.
- Luxury Power Shoppers: personalized recommendations, VIP treatment, social proof, and trust clues delivered across app, social, and live.
- Price-sensitive: Clear discount, free-shipping thresholds, ,and transparent costs.
- Need-only: Practical value, simple offers, and low-friction checkout.
One of the messages they really try to get across is to focus on customer segmentation, and make sure you’re offering the right experience to the right customer. And I agree, to an extent.
While I am regularly reminding my students and clients not to discount products that would sell at full-price, or not to run big sales if they don’t bring in enough additional revenue to actually make more in profit…
I do tend to caution people about segmenting. That doesn’t mean segmenting has no place in your strategy. But it’s entirely dependent on the size of your customer list, and how fragmented that group is. Sometimes the extra work it takes to implement a segmented strategy like that doesn’t result in a big enough revenue or profit lift to warrant the work. That’s obviously not something I can diagnose for you on a podcast episode, but food for thought.
The truth is, the way I teach Q4 strategy for eCommerce includes all of these things, because they work. And it doesn’t require you to get into the nitty gritty of customer segmenting to see crazy success.
How AI Influences Shopping Behavior
It wouldn’t be the mid-2020s if we didn’t talk about AI and how it influences shopping behavior. This report found that every generation has used AI in their shopping process.
- 67% of Gen-Z
- 63% of Millennials
- 41% of Gen-X
- 31% of Boomers
While the adoption of AI obviously skews younger, older generations are getting in on the action too. Interestingly, men are using more at 68% vs. 43% for women.
This actually makes perfect sense to me. Men tend to only shop when they need or want something specific. Women on the other hand, we’re shopping all the time.
We ran into some issues in our guest bathroom downstairs (buy a home they said, it’ll be fun they said). Turns out we’ll be remodeling this bathroom sooner than expected and Mike was reminding me I needed to pick out the tile, the paint color, etc. so we could plan out the project timeline. Um, I’ve had that picked out since we moved in, let’s be serious. But I digress.
Optimizing Your Store for AI Search
At the end of the day, even if you’re not an AI shopper there’s a good chance your customer is. The even better news is that regardless of what the Internet would make you believe, optimizing your site for AI tools isn’t much different than regular search engines.
And Shopify makes it really easy to map your products to these AI tools. If you haven’t already, make sure you review your Shopify catalog to confirm the correct fields are mapped. If you have your product descriptions broken up over multiple fields – for example you’re using metafields to store product details – you’ll want to get all that information combined into one field that you can map to the catalog.
Lounge members; you have access to a Shopify flow that can automate this for you in the AI section of Workshops + Guests. The flow template is also available inside Shopify Secrets.
This is important because consumers are using these tools for research and comparison purposes, if the AI doesn’t fully understand your product it will have a hard time recommending you.
Holiday Shopping Starts Earlier Than You Think
Only 17% of people start their shopping during the BFCM weekend. The majority of people are planning, browsing, and list building in September and October, and they start comparison shopping in November.
This timeline is not at all surprising to me and why in the Q4 marketing strategy for eCommerce (link to Q4 Badassery) I teach, I recommend you start teasing early and having your entire holiday campaign launched by November 1st.
Plus, while we tend to think of Q4 as a gift-giving time, the truth is, self-gifting is a huge part of the shopping boom. It’s always been that way, even on Black Friday, and this report confirms it’s only increasing. Apparently self-gifting has increased from 31 to 40% in the last 3 years. Gen-Z is the biggest self gifting group with 53% of their holiday purchases being for themselves vs. 27% for boomers.
All that said, I still stand by my recommendation of not having your Black Friday sale early. Across multiple businesses the success of that over the last few years has declined. I think it’s mostly because it doesn’t have the same energy as actual black friday, and customers are afraid to pull the trigger until they know what all their favorite stores are doing.
The only time I would recommend you do your promotions early is if your data shows you’re consistently successful with it, or it’s necessary for your business model or the product you sell.
The Best Discount or Promotional Strategy
One of the biggest questions most eCommerce store owners have for Q4 and the holiday season is what kind of promotion should I run.
My best recommendation is to find the easiest to explain and execute option that has proven to work well with your customers in the past.
Typically that’s going to be a straight discount, a BMSM, or a BOGO.
According to the TapCart report, BOGO and simple discounts win across all age groups and customer segments, with free shipping trailing pretty close behind.
I was surprised to see their data showed Buy More Save More as one of the least desired according to those surveyed.
That’s why it’s so important to look back at your own data to identify what has been most successful and profitable for you in the past. Inside Q4 Badassery, formerly the Badass Holiday Planning Guide, I give you a framework for how to figure that out. There’s also an ai-assisted process you can use to speed things up. Even if you’re not an AI user, I recommend you look at the workbook because it’s just one more way to learn about the concept which could help bring a little extra clarity.
Preferred Q4 Communication Strategy
Communication with your customers is one of the most important things you need to master when building your holiday sales strategy.
If you’re one of the many eCommerce business owners I know who can get a little shy when it comes to marketing their business, or being afraid to be annoying, you’ll be happy to know that 62% of survey respondents said they were open to more messages than usual during the sale, and as long as the messages are relevant, you’ll snag an additional 3% for a total of 65.
In the context of this survey, they were really looking at how customers felt about push notifications. These are typically only used for apps, though some brands use browser notifications.
While this doesn’t map perfectly to a brand that is more email + SMS heavy, it still validates what you’ve probably heard before.
People are willing to receive more messages during peak seasons, but also something as intrusive as a push notification – I would also put SMS in this category – should be reserved for genuine time sensitive notifications.
You also have to contend with quiet hours for this type of messaging, so you still want to have a strong Q4 eCommerce email marketing strategy.
For example, if you have a multi-day sale going on, you might want to use SMS for the launch, reminder, and last chance, leaving any additional communication to email alone.
The Most Universal Retention Strategy for eCommerce Shoppers
When it comes to building a long-term, sustainable eCommerce business, retention is super important. Sure, getting new customers is great, but if they only ever shop with you one time and then peace out, that’s not going to do much for your growth.
While there are a lot of things you can focus on to build retention, email marketing being the one I talk about the most, loyalty reward programs are something that all customers appreciate, no matter their age or segment.
According to this report, 9 in 10 shoppers say a loyalty program is important to them. It becomes even stronger among luxury shoppers and highly engaged customers.
As an eCommerce strategist, I love a good loyalty program. At my previous day job, the data was clear. Customers who participated in our program stayed longer and spent more, a lot more.
And it doesn’t take much to create a successful loyalty program. In fact, the industry average just gives back 5%. So for every $100 someone spends, they get $5 back.
But like everything else in eCommerce, you can’t just add an app to your store and hope it works. You do have to actively pursue engagement. It’s not hard, and a lot of it is set and forget it, but I don’t want you to think it will revolutionize your business overnight.
The Big Takeaway
The biggest takeaway from this report? Most of what shoppers want is pretty familiar.
Show up before they’re ready to buy. Make it easy to find the right product. Give them an offer they understand. Communicate throughout your sale. Give them a reason to come back.
These strategies have been working for a long time. But sometimes that familiarity makes us discount them. We assume there must be some creative campaign or new tactic that’s going to unlock the sales we’ve been chasing.
You don’t have to win an award for the most original Black Friday campaign. You’re trying to run a profitable business.
If an offer worked well last year, you can run it again. Look at where you have room to improve. Could you build excitement sooner? Make your gift guides easier to shop? Actually send those last-chance emails you talked yourself out of?
That’s how you build a stronger Q4: use what you already know about your customers to make this year a little better. Add new strategies when you have the time, the resources, and a good reason to do so.
As you finalize your holiday plans, use this report alongside your own results to identify your biggest opportunity. Then give yourself enough room to execute it well.
