The holidays are loud. Every brand is flooding inboxes, running ads, and shouting on social media. You are competing with everyone from Target to Aunt Sally’s handmade soap shop on Etsy.
And your customer? She’s overwhelmed. She’s juggling travel plans, school concerts, work deadlines, Aunt Linda’s dairy allergy, and a dog that keeps eating the ribbon off the gifts. Her brain is full.
That means she cannot and will not do the imaginative leaps we wish she would. If your content is vague, if it leaves her wondering who it’s for or why it matters, she’s gone. It’s not that she doesn’t care, it’s that she literally doesn’t have the bandwidth to figure it out.
So in Q4, your job isn’t to be clever… it’s to be clear. Spell it out for her. Make the buying decision as easy and friction-free as possible.
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Will Shoppers Still be Spending in Q4?
Let’s start with the elephant in the room, and the question I got some version of more than once: will people still be spending in Q4? How are things like the economy, tariffs, and everything else going to affect holiday sales?
First off, I don’t have a crystal ball—and the truth is, no one does. There are plenty of reasons to be concerned: prices are still rising, unemployment is ticking up, job growth is slowing. And yet, the stock market looks just fine. That doesn’t necessarily mean much for the wallets of everyday Americans, but it’s often used as a shorthand for the economy as a whole. So you end up with these conflicting narratives.
I’m no economist, but my guess is the market looks steady because the full brunt of tariffs hasn’t hit yet, companies have been trimming payrolls and leaning on AI to protect or grow profits, and AI itself is inflating market valuations.
But here’s what I can tell you from experience. In my 25+ years in retail, no matter what’s happening in the broader economy, Q4 holiday sales usually manage to hold their own. Are people going to be lining up outside Best Buy for the latest flatscreen? Probably not. But will they still be buying the “typical” holiday gifts—jewelry, scented candles, cozy winter gear? Yes, most likely. They might spend less than they have in recent years, but the spending doesn’t disappear altogether.
A recent survey about Q4 shopping covered by Reuters suggests holiday spending is expected to see its biggest year-over-year drop since the pandemic. What’s interesting, though, is that even with this projected pullback, consumers’ holiday budgets are still higher than they were in 2020. That’s despite the fact that, back then, all that COVID stimulus money had people feeling more financially comfortable.
So, are you going to increase your Q4 revenue by 20% over last year? Probably not. But are you headed for a massive collapse? Not unless you decide to throw in the towel before even giving it a solid try.
At the end of the day, people will still buy gifts. There are always going to be folks who are ready, willing, and able to shop for the holidays—and for those who aren’t, many will still swipe a credit card. That part might feel a little icky, but here’s the thing: other people’s financial choices aren’t your business. Your job is to market ethically and stay out of their wallets.
The key to success this season is capturing as much of that holiday spending as possible. Visibility is everything. You’ve got to go all in with your marketing in Q4. You may need to be a little more aggressive—maybe that’s not quite the right word, but you get what I mean. What used to feel easy will take more effort if you want to cut through the noise of every other brand fighting for the same attention.
So my advice is this: market as if there’s no trouble in the economy. Be more conservative when it comes to holiday-specific products, and lean harder into your evergreen items. That way, even if you don’t sell through every unit during the season, you’ll know you can move that inventory over time.
Do I Have to Run a Black Friday Sale?
One of my email responses asked: How should we approach Black Friday if we don’t buy into mass consumerism? Our brand has sustainable values but we feel expected to do something.
Let me start by saying this: you absolutely do not have to run a Black Friday sale if it doesn’t align with your brand values. If you decide not to, that’s totally okay. Just make sure you communicate your why. Be unapologetic about it. Share your perspective with your customers and give them a reason to rally around you.
Now, will you probably make more sales if you do run some sort of Black Friday promotion? Yes—that’s just the nature of the season. But that doesn’t mean you won’t sell anything if you sit it out. You’ll still have people who support you because they believe in your mission, and sometimes that kind of loyalty is even more valuable than chasing a short-term spike.
We’ve seen well-known examples of this in action. Outdoor retailer REI launched its #OptOutside campaign in 2015, closing stores and paying employees to spend the day outdoors instead of working. Cards Against Humanity actually raised their prices on Black Friday to discourage shopping. And some fashion labels have gone completely dark by shutting down their websites and redirecting visitors to educational content about mindful consumption and garment care.
Now, are you going to get the same kind of PR buzz as REI if you go dark on Black Friday? Probably not. And let’s be honest—those companies likely made up for any missed sales elsewhere in the season. But will taking a values-driven stance resonate deeply with your existing customers? Absolutely.
Bonus points: partner up with some other small businesses that have a similar stance as you and you’ll be able to make a bigger splash.
That said, if you do want to participate without feeling like you’re giving in to the mass consumerism side of things, here are a few different approaches to run an anti-Black Friday campaign:
Reward Loyalty Instead of Discounts.
Instead of blasting out a sitewide sale, you could create exclusive perks just for your best customers—early access to new or limited-edition products, a free upgrade, or a thoughtful gift with purchase. This shifts the focus away from discounting and puts the spotlight on nurturing your most valuable relationships.
Buy Less, Buy Better.
Encourage mindful shopping by highlighting products that last. Frame your sale around investing in quality pieces, not quick trends. Patagonia leans into this by offering free repairs to extend the life of their products, showing customers they’re built to last. IKEA launched its “Buyback Friday,” where customers could bring back pre-owned furniture for store credit—literally encouraging reuse instead of buying new. And Girlfriend Collective incentivized recycling by giving store credit for returning old activewear. These kinds of approaches turn Black Friday into a conversation about longevity and circularity, rather than disposability.
Stock-Up Sale.
If you sell consumables, like skincare, pantry staples, candles, or coffee, you can position your promotion as a stock-up event. Customers aren’t buying more than they need; they’re simply saving on items they already use and love. It’s a way to meet them where they are without pushing unnecessary consumption.
Shopping With a Purpose.
Another option is to tie your sales to impact. Instead of giving discounts, donate that would be discount to a charitable cause instead. If it makes sense for your product assortment you could create a limited-edition charity product where 100% of profit goes to a cause you care about.
The one thing I want to be real about in terms of charitable giving is, it makes people feel good about their purchase, but it doesn’t necessarily drive more purchases or profit. That’s not a good or bad thing, just something to be aware of.
At the end of the day, Black Friday doesn’t have to be one-size-fits-all. You get to decide how you show up… whether that’s opting out entirely, reframing it in a way that aligns with your values, or tying it to something bigger than just discounts. What matters most is being intentional and clear with your customers. When you lead with your values and communicate your why, the right people will always rally behind you.
How Should I Structure My Black Friday Campaign?
I got a lot of questions about the strategy and the logistics of running a Black Friday promotion, like what should my offer be, how early should I start, how long should it be, how many emails is too many.
Now, I’ve covered all these questions A LOT here on the podcast, so I’m gonna give you a quick overview of my strategy and then direct you to some other episodes where you go deeper.
What Should the Discount Offer be For Black Friday?
When it comes to deciding on your offer, the truth is, it depends on your goals. Different types of offers have different results. A site-wide discount will always generate the most revenue, but will have the biggest margin hit. Things like gifts with purchase, are only good for existing customers. You have to find the sweet spot for your product and customer. I love a good buy more, save more, or a straight percentage off that doesn’t include your best selling items.
I recommend you look back at what has resonated best with your customers in the past, and then make sure you’ve actually brought in enough additional sales and revenue that even with the discount, you ended up with more dollars in profit vs. just giving money away on items people would have bought at full price.
How Should I Time My Black Friday Sale?
In terms of timing, I like to open early access on Wednesday night before Thanksgiving. Then, it goes public on Thanksgiving night. Remember, by this time people are sick of hanging out with their family and they’re tired from all the food, so they’re sitting on the couch scrolling their phones. Then, I like to run the same sale through to Cyber Monday. I know a lot of brands will have something different on Cyber Monday to try and entice people to come back. I’ve never really seen that work. And in my experience Cyber Monday never does as good as black friday anyway. So I say keep it simple for everyone, and just have the same offer all weekend long.
How Many Emails Should I Send During Black Friday Weekend?
When it comes to your Black Friday weekend email schedule, you’re gonna want to send a lot of emails. I’ve actually walked through my entire sending schedule in episode 157, so I definitely recommend you take a listen to that.
Should I Run my Black Friday Sale Early?
Running early Black Friday sales has been a trend for the past few years, with the idea being that if you launch ahead of the rush, you’ll stand out from the noise. But honestly, I think that trend is starting to fizzle out—I even noticed signs of it last year. Some of my students and clients who ran their promos early just didn’t see the same traction they had in years past.
Here’s my theory: early sales just don’t carry the same excitement that Black Friday weekend does. As chaotic as that weekend can be, there’s a contagious energy around it that you simply don’t get when you go too soon.
And let’s not forget consumer psychology. When shoppers have a set budget in mind, they’re hesitant to pull the trigger too early because of FOMO. They want to see what all their favorite brands are offering before deciding where to spend.
For the last couple of years, I’ve run what I call the Badassery Blitz after Black Friday. My reasoning is simple: I’d rather you stay focused on your own sales that weekend instead of worrying about what I’m doing. And because I know other educators are also running sales like this, I announce what will be included in the Blitz so you can plan your budget accordingly.
So here’s my advice: if you’ve historically run your promotion on Black Friday itself, stick with it. This isn’t the year to experiment. And if you’ve been running your sale early but you’ve started to notice diminishing results, consider shifting back to the traditional Black Friday weekend in 2025.
Post-Holiday Sales Momentum
Another question that came in was about what happens after the holidays: Once the holidays are over, how do I keep momentum going into January instead of hitting a sales slump?
This is such an important one, because January can feel like crickets for a lot of eCommerce businesses. Everyone has just spent like crazy in November and December, and it’s easy to assume people are tapped out. But the truth is, if you plan ahead, you can absolutely keep the momentum going.
One of my favorite strategies is to create a bounceback offer that you give to customers during Q4. The idea is simple: with every order they place during the holiday season, you include a special offer that’s only valid in January. This is a gives your customers a reason to come back when sales are typically slow.
If you don’t sell a consumable product, you’ll want to make sure the bouceback offer return dates line up with the release of your next collection, or at least when you’ll have a few new products. You don’t want to ask them to come back to buy the things they already had access to during the holiday season ‘cause they probably would have already bought them.
If you want more ideas for how to bring holiday customers back in the new year, I actually did a whole episode on this… 303. How to Bring Back Holiday Customers in the New Year.
How to Approach Q4 When Motivation and Energy Are Running Low
Another question I got was about planning for Q4 when life throws you a curveball. The exact wording was: How do you plan your 4th quarter when everything you had planned for the year goes up in smoke due to health issues in the family, and you feel unmotivated and stuck because the world is on fire?
First, let me just acknowledge—life happens. You’re not a robot, you’re a human being, and sometimes the most important thing you can do is take care of yourself and your family. If that means scaling back, simplifying, or even skipping some things altogether, that’s okay. At the end of the day, this is just business. You sell products, not oxygen. Your worth isn’t measured by how much revenue you bring in during Q4.
That said… I also want to remind you that you are the CEO of your business. And Q4 is the single biggest opportunity of the year to bring in cash. Sometimes, putting on your big-girl panties and showing up—even if it’s not perfect—is the smartest move you can make, because it buys you breathing room. Think of it like this: if you can push through and get some extra sales now, you can give yourself the space to truly rest and recover in January and February without stressing about money.
So what does that look like if you’re running on fumes? It means stripping your Q4 plan down to the bare essentials. Maybe that’s one solid promotion instead of three. Maybe it’s leaning on evergreen products you know sell well instead of creating new ones. Maybe it’s reusing last year’s email copy and just updating the dates. You don’t need to reinvent the wheel to make an impact.
My advice: give yourself permission to do less, but commit to doing something. Honor where you are, protect your energy, and remember that even a simplified effort in Q4 can pay off in a big way for the months that follow.
If you want some more tactical ideas on how to simplify Q4 without sacrificing success, check out episode 296 where I walk through some ideas.
One quick note, in that episode I talk about an app that lets you create timed banners to show/hide at a specific date and time. This episode was released before my course Shopify Secrets which includes a tutorial on how to turn any section into a timed section on your theme. Plus, it’s a one-time fee vs. a recurring monthly charge and includes a whole bunch of other cool stuff to help you organize your store, so I’d check that out before getting the app.
Alright friend, that’s a wrap on today’s Q&A. I hope this gave you some clarity and inspiration for how to approach Q4 this year—even if things feel uncertain or overwhelming.
Listen to this Episode
Episodes Mentioned
157. My Full Black Friday Weekend Email Schedule
303. How to Bring Back Holiday Customers in the New Year
296. Simplifying Q4 Without Sacrificing Success
